I have often believed that democracy needed to be a central key to build a nation. However, while observing West and Central African politics, I am filled with a deep sense of concern because of the increasing trend of democratic backsliding and re-surfacing of military coup d’etat. The governance norms that were previously very deeply rooted are being dismantled, raising fundamental questions regarding the continent’s stability. In this article, I examine the causes, case studies, and implications of these occurrences, conducting a thorough analysis of the crisis that is on the verge of derailing Africa’s democratic dream.

The past several years have witnessed a sobering surge in West and Central African military coups. Between 2020 and 2024, no less than eight successful coups occurred in countries like Mali (2020, 2021), Guinea (2021), Sudan (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), Niger (2023), and Gabon (2023). All of these events have rocked the continent, recording systemic governance shortcomings and weaknesses of democratic institutions. Historically, coups were a typical feature of African politics during the post-colonial era, particularly in the 1960s and 1970s. As the wave of democratization rolled across the continent in the 1990s and early 2000s, military coups became less common as constitutionalism and electoral democracy gained hold. Recent trends of coups in the past two years suggest that democratic gains of the last few decades are under serious threat.

Browsing the many West and Central African coups, I see ongoing patterns within the reasons for the military takeovers. Weakening democratic institutions continues to be a root cause. The majority of states that are victim to the coup have fragile political institutions that cannot enforce democratic norms. The electoral bodies, judiciary, and parliaments do not operate independently, and their elections get manipulated, with faith in the government of the country being lost. Widespread corruption has also been a major grievance in the majority of the coups. In Guinea, the 2021 coup that overthrew President Alpha Condé was in part driven by charges of corruption and the unpopular decision by the president to amend the constitution to allow him to stay in power. Failure to tackle corruption properly has left citizens disillusioned, rendering it conducive to takeover by the military.
Military coups have also been caused by security threats, particularly armed insurrections and terrorism. The coups in Burkina Faso and Mali were justified by the military in terms of how they responded to jihadist attacks that had destabilized the Sahel. The inability of civilian administrations to contain such security threats has typically given the military a motivation to step in under the cover of restoring stability. Both foreign influence and geopolitical rivalry have also caused democratic backsliding. This has further increased the intricacy of the region’s political map, with extraneous actors impacting patterns of governance through military alignment and economic influence. Public dissatisfaction and economic difficulties have been key in legitimizing coups. Economic crisis, rising unemployment, and inflation have led to widespread public discontent, and populations are more receptive to military interventions that guarantee change. In Sudan, economic mismanagement was among the major causes of the 2021 coup as frustrations with living standards ran out of hand.

Mali experienced two coups within a span of just nine months. In August 2020, the military overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in the initial coup due to mass protests against corruption and insecurity. In May 2021, the transitional government itself was overthrown by the military, and the country plunged further into political chaos. The junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has since consolidated its hold, delaying elections promised and stoking fears of the prolongation of military rule. In January 2022, Burkina Faso’s military ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, accusing him of his failure to suppress Islamist uprisings. The coup was initially welcomed by sections of the population who were dissatisfied with insecurity, but eight months later, in September 2022, another coup took place, overthrowing Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba and installing Captain Ibrahim Traoré. The serial seizures pointed to the underlying instability in the nation.
Niger’s July 2023 coup was particularly alarming since the country had been among the Sahel’s few remaining stable democracies. The military, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, toppled President Mohamed Bazoum. The coup sparked worldwide international condemnation, with ECOWAS threatening a possible military intervention to restore constitutional rule. However, the junta has remained adamant on not relinquishing power, and the country was driven towards an uncertain political future. Unlike the majority of the coup d’états motivated by security concerns, Gabon’s 2023 coup originated from electoral controversy. President Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose dynasty had ruled for over 50 years, was declared the winner of a controversial election. The army, hours later, cancelled the election on electoral fraud grounds and seized power. The event created alarms about political dynasties and legitimacy of rule in Africa.

As I observe these occurrences, I realize that the effects of democratic backsliding are experienced way beyond the direct political arena. Repeated coups destabilize government and lead to power vacuums, leading to long-term instability and uncertainty. Countries that experience coups typically face economic sanctions, reduced foreign investment, and lower economic growth. Mali, for instance, faced massive economic losses due to ECOWAS sanctions following its 2021 coup. Military governments are typically incapable of addressing security problems, as is the case in Burkina Faso and Mali, where terrorism from jihadist elements has intensified under military governments. Coups have strained relations between regional organizations like ECOWAS and the African Union, and collective security and governance mechanisms have become harder to impose.
I firmly believe that this trend must be reversed by a multi-dimensional approach. Democratic institutions must be strengthened. Judicial independence, free and fair elections, and transparent governance must be ensured to re-establish public trust in democracy. The fight against corruption must be given top priority, with anti-corruption machinery in place to check the misuse of power that typically leads to coups. Enhancing security measures is also necessary, with governments needing to be able to respond to insurgencies and terrorism while maintaining civilian control over the military. Regional and international support is required, with ECOWAS, the African Union, and the international community having in place stronger deterrents against coups and helping democratic transitions.
With political transformation, civil society must also gain more voice in the defense of democracy and in holding governments accountable. Grassroots movements, independent media, and youth movements cannot be disempowered in their capacity to counteract authoritarian tendencies. Ghana and Senegal, two countries that have resisted coup attempts amidst political instability, are cases that demonstrate assertive civic action can serve as a bulwark against military dictatorship. Improving political literacy and civic education will be crucial in ensuring that populations avoid non-democratic forms of rule.

Democracy in West and Central Africa is now being put to the test with one of the largest challenges in years. The resurfacing of coups is not just a rebuke of specific leaders but also a condemnation of weak governance systems that have failed to deliver for the people. If these trends are not nipped in the bud, the region could further sink into authoritarianism and instability. But I still hope that through combined efforts from African leaders, civil society, and the international community, democracy may be revived. The battle for democratic governance has not yet ended, and it is a battle to be won for the future of Africa.